The cattle market just made it a whole week without a new bird flu story to scare things. That was a victory after avian bird flu news escalated over the last month in dairy herds across the United States. The general public became used to the story with all food source signs pointed to safe.

Cash cattle trade was quiet all week with a few trades late Friday around $184 live and $2.92 dressed. May producers held out for higher cash. Showlists were very manageable for feedyards to navigate. It still feels like we are current, but carcass weights are not showing that evidence yet with 25 pounds more than year ago levels. With that extra weight, beef production is 3% ahead of the previous year on less head.

The cattle on feed report printed some friendly numbers for a change. The on feed number of 101% was below the estimate by 102%. Placements of 88% were 5% below estimates, and marketings of 86% were 2% below estimates. Placements are going to tell the story again of a smaller cow herd in my opinion. We are not witnessing the mass regrowth of the beef industry in the United States. Costs are higher across the board and better prices will need to happen to make a large investment in expanding the cow herd. The cattle industry is used to a black swan coming in to spoil the party, so we need a little more confidence that prices look to stay high.

Peak demand is around the corner. I look for packers to make a harder run at cattle purchases soon to fill orders of the upcoming grilling season. We normally see bids for every week in May and June by now, so I believe packers will need to make a move here fairly soon. Have a good week.

The risk of loss when trading futures and options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.